Book

The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma (Cornell University Press, Studies in Security Affairs series, forthcoming August 2025).

Peer-Reviewed Articles

“Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don't: The Assurance Dilemma in International Coercion,” International Security, Vol. 49, No. 1 (2024): 91-132. [link]

“The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship,” International Security, Vol. 47, No. 3 (Winter 2022/2023): 9-51. With Rose McDermott. [working paper version] [ungated link]

“Wargaming for International Relations Research,” European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 28, No. 1 (2022): 83-109. With Erik Lin-Greenberg and Jacquelyn Schneider. [working paper version] [link]

“Deniability in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: The Upside of the Dual-Use Dilemma,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 66, Iss. 1 (2022). [link]

“Caught Red-Handed: How States Wield Proof to Coerce Wrongdoers,” International Security, Vol. 46, No. 2 (Fall 2021): 7-50. With Cullen G. Nutt. [pdf]

“Would U.S. Leaders Push the Button? Wargames and the Sources of Nuclear Restraint,” International Security, Vol. 43, No. 2 (Fall 2018): 151-192. [pdf]

“Bedeviled by a Paradox: Nitze, Bundy, and an Incipient Nuclear Norm,” The Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 22, Iss. 3-4 (2015): 441-455. [pdf]

Book Chapters

“Should the United States or the international community aggressively pursue nuclear nonproliferation policies?” co-authored with Scott D. Sagan, in Peter M. Haas and John A. Hird (eds.), Controversies in Globalization: Contending Approaches to International Relations, 2nd Edition, Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2013.

“The Conundrum of Close Calls,” co-authored with Scott D. Sagan, in Henry D. Sokolski and Bruno Tertrais (eds.), Nuclear Weapons Security Crises: What Does History Teach?, U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 2013. 

Op-Eds, Essays, and Book Reviews

Roundtable Review of Jacques Hymans, “The Bomb as God: A Metaphor that Impedes Nuclear Disarmament.” Security Studies (2024). H-Diplo|Robert Jervis International Security Studies Forum, Roundtable Review 15-53, July 24, 2024.

“The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship,” H-Diplo|Robert Jervis International Security Studies Forum, Policy Roundtable II-5, August 4, 2023. With Rose McDermott.

“Putin and the Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship,” Foreign Affairs, May 30, 2023. With Rose McDermott and Paul Slovic.

“Don’t Be So Confident in Nuclear Decision-Making,” Lawfare, February 26, 2023. With Rose McDermott.

“What to Do When Predicting Pandemics,” Foreign Policy, September 11, 2020.

“Shedding Light on Nuclear Conflict,” Texas National Security Review, Roundtable on Paul Avey, Tempting Fate: Why Nonnuclear States Confront Nuclear Opponents, August 17, 2020.

“Why Invading Iran Would Be a Military Disaster,” The National Interest, January 12, 2020. With Daniel Khalessi.

“A Dangerous and Growing Rift Between Nuclear Strategy and Arms Control,” The Simons Foundation Graduate Research Awards for Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, March 1, 2018.

“This is Why Trump’s Strategy for Iran Will Fail,” The National Interest, December 21, 2017. With Mahsa Rouhi and Sahar Nowrouzzadeh.

“The Tangled Fates of Pittsburgh and Paris,” War on the Rocks, June 12, 2017.

“The Pioneering Role of CIS in American War Gaming,” Précis, Fall 2015.

“History, Close Calls, and Nuclear Materials Security,” co-authored with Scott D. Sagan, commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative for preparation of the Nuclear Materials Security Index 2.0, December 2012.